That is NFL Finest Bets, a recurring sequence wherein soccer consultants and handicappers lend us their insights and picks for probably the most intriguing matchups for every week of the skilled soccer season.
Within the Week 5 version of NFL Finest Bets, Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Resort On line casino & Spa in Atlantic Metropolis, sports activities betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN and Mike Golic Jr. of DraftKings share their opinions on 5 video games that can spotlight the NFL’s fifth weekend, together with the Cowboys touring to San Fran to tackle the Niners on Sunday Night time Soccer.
You’ve obtained locations to go, folks to see and probably some wagers to make, so let’s get to it.
Jaguars (+5, O/U 48.5) at Payments
Appelbaum’s Evaluation: This London showdown opened with Buffalo listed as little as a 4.5-point impartial web site favourite. We’ve seen the Payments get steamed up from -4.5 to -5 or -6, signaling revered cash laying the factors. Buffalo is a large public play, with 85% of bets and 88% of cash backing the Payments. As a contrarian bettor, I respect the road transfer however can’t be a part of the gang on Buffalo. As a substitute, I’ll take a look at the overall. It opened at 48.5 and has both stayed the identical or fallen to 48 regardless of 70% of bets taking the over. Unders are 35-29 (55%) this season. If the overall falls at the least a half level the underneath is 27-18 (60%). I’ll root for a lower-scoring recreation and go underneath 48.5.
Gable’s Guess: That is the house away from dwelling for Jacksonville and final week they obtained to 2-2 together with the remainder of the NFC South. In beating the Falcons, the Jags produced 4 sacks and three takeaways and in addition scored their first defensive landing of the season. The Payments simply dominated Miami and Josh Allen has emerged because the early-season favourite to win the MVP award. The Jags have points staying on the sphere on offense by changing on third down. They had been 5-of-14 towards Atlanta. it actually begins with Trevor Lawrence utilizing his legs when wanted and being cell. Miami’s offense simply couldn’t sustain with Buffalo and when Allen is rolling like he was, they’re extraordinarily onerous to cease. The Payments don’t blitz so much as a result of they will generate sufficient stress with their entrance ground and blend up their coverages rather well. After a poor Week 1 outing on the Jets, Buffalo has righted the ship. I’ll lay the factors with the Payments.
Golic’s Gamble: The Payments are one of the best crew in soccer proper now. A blow-up recreation for Josh Allen is feasible, however not possible coming off his greatest recreation of the 12 months vs. an admittedly struggling Dolphins’ protection. He’s taking what’s there beneath and focusing on Stefton Diggs in advantageous matchups, all whereas getting extra manufacturing from the run recreation. They hold it rolling and spoil Jacksonville’s try for an undefeated 2023 of their dwelling away from dwelling throughout the pond. Laying the factors.
IH Finest Guess: Undecided if both crew is there but, however leaning Payments so will lay the factors.
Titans (-2, O/U 43) at Colts
Appelbaum’s Evaluation: This line opened with the Colts listed as a brief 1-point dwelling favourite. We’ve seen the road utterly flip to Titans -2 and even -2.5 at some retailers. This alerts sharp “canine to favourite” line motion on Tennessee. The Titans are receiving 55% of bets however 65% of the cash, indicating modest public assist but in addition revered sharp motion. I’ll again the veteran duo of Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill over the rookie duo of Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson. Give me Tennessee on the moneyline -135.
Gable’s Guess: That is basically selecting the winner as a result of the favourite has already flipped after which flipped once more. The Titans lastly had offensive recreation towards the Bengals with Derrick Henry working for a landing and in addition throwing for one. The Colts’ comeback fell a little bit quick towards the Rams, however this crew has proven that it’s going to proceed to compete. Jonathan Taylor will turn into a participant in follow this week and there’s a risk he might play on this recreation. Having him again bodes nicely for the remainder of the season for the Colts. It is a powerful recreation to foretell. Did the Titans really discover one thing on offense final week? I have to see extra earlier than I can again them, so I’m going to again Indy at dwelling right here.
Golic’s Gamble: The one factor extra predictable than the Titans making mincemeat of one of many AFC’s ordinary prime groups final week could be a letdown this week towards a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. All eyes might be on the backfield that includes the seemingly return of Jonathan Taylor in some type, however the Colts’ protection ought to steal the day and make life troublesome for King Henry. Taking the Colts with the factors.
IH Finest Guess: Would lean Titans, however not likely certain on the aspect right here so going to take the underneath.
Ravens (-4, O/U 38) at Steelers
Appelbaum’s Evaluation: The Ravens began the week listed as a brief 2.5-point highway favourite. Early cash hammered Baltimore, steaming the Ravens up from -2.5 to -4. The general public is everywhere in the Ravens, with 73% of bets laying the factors. At this level, the Steelers are offering buy-low worth as an inflated dwelling canine. Pittsburgh is simply receiving 27% of bets however 50% of the cash, a pointy guess discrepancy. Divisional canine are 12-10 ATS (55%) this season and 56% ATS since 2020. Canines off a blowout lack of 20 factors or extra are 3-1 ATS this season and 62% ATS since 2018 (Pittsburgh obtained blown out 30-6 final week at Houston). Mike Tomlin is 2-1 ATS this season as a canine and 65% ATS in his profession. I’ll go contrarian and take Pittsburgh +4 (store round for a hook +4.5).
Gable’s Guess: The Steelers had been totally outplayed by the Texans in Week 4. I believe the Ravens appear to be a crew that may contend. They’ve been just about unstoppable within the pink zone and scored touchdowns on 12-of-15 journeys there. You’ll be able to attribute numerous that success to Lamar Jackson and defenses not with the ability to work out what he’s doing. The Browns have among the best defenses within the league and Lamar ran for 2 touchdowns and threw for 2 extra. The Steelers have harm points they’re coping with. Kenny Pickett suffered what’s being known as a bone bruise to his knee. He hasn’t been dominated out of this recreation, however it will likely be Mitch Trubisky getting the nod to start out if he’s. The Steelers have gotten off to gradual begins in each recreation up to now and this isn’t a crew that’s constructed to play from behind. They should play hard-nosed Steeler soccer to win video games and the protection goes to want to hold the load. I’m taking the underneath right here.
Golic’s Gamble: Identical formulation as final week. Baltimore’s protection is rolling. I’ve to think about the Steeler defensive will reply to a bodily follow week courtesy of Mike Tomlin with a renewed effort after being pushed round by the Texans per week in the past. However I nonetheless can’t belief a Matt Canada-led offense to place up factors with a banged-up QB vs. a Ravens protection that continues to provide at a excessive stage regardless of accidents. Suppose the Ravens win, however factors might be onerous to come back by. I’ll take the underneath.
IH Finest Guess: Ravens blew doorways final week and seeing a repeat right here. Laying the factors.
Chiefs (-4, O/U 52.5) at Vikings
Appelbaum’s Evaluation: This line opened with Kansas Metropolis listed as a 6.5-point highway favourite. The general public is everywhere in the Chiefs with 74% of bets laying the factors. Nonetheless, regardless of this lopsided betting we’ve seen Kansas Metropolis fall from -6.5 to -4. This alerts sharp reverse line motion on Minnesota, with professionals grabbing the factors — not laying them. The Vikings are receiving 26% of bets however 51% of cash, a pointy contrarian guess discrepancy. I’ll observe the sharp motion and take Minnesota plus the factors.
Gable’s Guess: Patrick Mahomes had certainly one of his worst quarters of soccer within the second quarter on Sunday night time. That enabled the Jets to get again into the sport after it actually appeared like a rout when the primary quarter was executed. However so long as Mahomes is on the sphere, this crew goes to be powerful to beat as a result of he’s one of some QBs within the league with sufficient expertise to mainly will his crew to victory. I believe Kansas Metropolis’s protection has not been forcing sufficient turnovers. That’s going to be key as they arrive into a very troublesome a part of their schedule. In the meantime, the Vikings obtained their first win of the season towards a really weak Carolina crew. Minnesota simply can’t appear to cease turning over the ball, so perhaps that is precisely what the Chief protection wants. The Vikings have 11 turnovers via 4 video games and all of the turnovers are resulting in factors for his or her opponents. I don’t anticipate a lot to alter right here, so I’ll lay the factors with Kansas Metropolis.
Golic’s Gamble: Zach Wilson carving up the Chiefs protection in primetime wasn’t on my bingo card final week and but all of us noticed it. Whereas we all know Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins ought to have the ability to have success towards any protection, I’m banking on Patrick Mahomes avoiding turnovers and getting again to type towards a Viking protection that’s executed extra dying by the blitz than dwelling by it this season underneath new DC Brian Flores. Laying the factors with KC.
IH Finest Guess: The sharps is likely to be proper however taking Mahomes over Cousins when potential. Laying the factors.
Cowboys (+3.5, O/U 45) at 49ers
Appelbaum’s Evaluation: This recreation opened with San Francisco listed as a 3-point dwelling favourite. At the moment 74% of bets and 79% of cash is laying the factors with the undefeated 49ers. This mix of heavy Professional and Joe assist has pushed the 49ers up from -3 to -3.5. I’m often not a fan of laying factors with a preferred favourite however how usually do you get San Francisco laying such a brief unfold at dwelling? The 49ers beat the Cowboys 19-12 in final 12 months’s divisional spherical of the playoffs. I anticipate an analogous consequence. I’ll shield myself from a 3-point win and take the 49ers to win the sport straight up on the moneyline -190.
Gable’s Guess: Brock Purdy has executed every part that’s been requested of him by the Niners. The Cowboys have appeared dominant in three of 4 video games this season and the Niners don’t appear to be they’ve any flaws, so that is going to be a enjoyable recreation between two of one of the best groups within the NFC. The Niners have scored at the least 30 factors in all 4 video games this season and nobody has been in a position to cease them but. Head coaches Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan are very acquainted with each other. The Cowboys have the expertise on protection to gradual the 49ers’ offense, however Christian McCaffrey is taking part in like an MVP candidate. For those who keep in mind, the Niners eradicated the Cowboys from the playoffs, so this can be a revenge spot for Dallas. I’m not predicting an outright win by Dallas, however I’ll take the factors with the Cowboys.
Golic’s Gamble: The Cowboys are on observe to have their preseason beginning 5 offensive linemen all again for the primary time this 12 months. That group vs this 49ers’ defensive entrance has “unstoppable pressure meets immovable object” vibes and I, for one, can’t wait to look at. I’m relying on Dak Prescott to proceed to handle the soccer whereas Micah Parsons continues his DPOY push. This comes all the best way right down to the wire, however the Cowboys hold it inside a FG on the very least. Taking Dallas with the factors.
IH Finest Guess: The Cowboys misplaced to the Cardinals two weeks in the past. Laying the factors.
Final Week: 3-2; This Season: 10-9-1
Editor’s word: Betting traces fluctuate based mostly on accidents, the climate and different elements. Double-check the chances earlier than betting.
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